Prediction History
Accuracy tracking and score calibration
Each evening the pipeline identifies stocks likely to gap up 10%+ at the next open. A pre-market filter confirms or filters out each candidate, and actual outcomes are recorded after the open. Confirmed Precision target: ~50%. High Conviction Precision target: ~89%.
Prediction Accuracy Summary
All Predictions
5.5%
[4.7, 6.5] · n=2572 (142 hit)
Confirmed Only
46.8%
[40.1, 53.7] · n=205 (96 hit)
High Conviction
73.5%
[64.6, 80.7] · n=113 (83 hit)
Live Confirmed
46.8%
[40.1, 53.7] · n=205 (96 hit)
Backtest Confirmed
n/a
Live High Conviction
73.5%
[64.6, 80.7] · n=113 (83 hit)
Backtest High Conviction
n/a
Directional Filter Performance
Candidates
2,572
Confirmed
205 (8.0%)
Filtered Out
1644 (63.9%)
No PM Data
723 (28.1%)
Confirmed Precision
46.8%
[40.1, 53.7] · n=205 (96 hit)
Filtered-Out Hit Rate
2.2%
[1.6, 3.0] · n=1644 (36 hit) — should be low
TP Retention
67.6%
Stage retention (confirmed hits / total hits) — not a Bernoulli precision; no CI shown
Precision by Catalyst Type
| Catalyst | Precision | Avg Gap % |
|---|---|---|
| Dead Cat Bounce | 13.6%
[9.5, 19.2]
n=191 (26 hit)
|
+7.0% |
| Earnings | 0.9%
[0.4, 2.4]
n=425 (4 hit)
|
+0.1% |
| FDA / Biotech | 6.1%
[2.4, 14.6]
n=66 (4 hit)
|
-0.8% |
| Filing Activity | 1.8%
[0.6, 5.1]
n=170 (3 hit)
|
-0.3% |
| Insider Activity | 1.5%
[0.3, 7.9]
n=68 (1 hit)
|
+0.1% |
| M&A | 0.0%
[0.0, 3.8]
n=98 (0 hit)
|
-1.1% |
| Offering / Dilution | 5.3%
[3.3, 8.4]
n=304 (16 hit)
|
+1.3% |
| Parabolic Run | 24.1%
[12.2, 42.1]
n=29 (7 hit)
|
+2.9% |
| Short Squeeze | 6.5%
[3.0, 13.5]
n=92 (6 hit)
|
+0.6% |
| Unknown | 2.2%
[1.3, 3.7]
n=637 (14 hit)
|
+7.0% |
| Volatility Breakout | 12.4%
[9.8, 15.6]
n=492 (61 hit)
|
+2.0% |
Precision cell shows {point}% [Wilson 95% CI] (n={count}, k hits). Count and hits live inside the cell — Catalyst column drops them to keep the row compact.
Charts
Rolling Precision
Gap Distribution
Score Calibration
Prediction History
Showing 200 of 2572 matching predictions
| Date | Ticker | Score | Source | Catalyst | PM Change | Status | Tier | Patterns | Actual Gap | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | ZBAO | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -21.9% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -25.6% | NO |
| 2026-07-10 | VYNE | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | -0.4% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.4% | NO |
| 2026-07-10 | SUNE | 6.83 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -13.8% | filtered_out | HIGH | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION, MULTI_DAY_PARABOLIC_CONTINUATION | -12.8% | NO |
| 2026-07-10 | SOBR | 5.42 | Live | Volatility Breakout | +17.9% | confirmed | HIGH | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION, DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | +22.8% | YES |
| 2026-07-10 | PSQH | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +1438.8% | YES |
| 2026-07-10 | NVVE | 3.72 | Live | Parabolic Run | -7.4% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | MULTI_DAY_PARABOLIC_CONTINUATION | -7.5% | NO |
| 2026-07-10 | JZXN | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -25.8% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -28.6% | NO |
| 2026-07-10 | INUV | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | +1.1% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.0% | NO |
| 2026-07-10 | HODO | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | +0.9% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.0% | NO |
| 2026-07-10 | HAO | 5.42 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -24.1% | filtered_out | HIGH | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION, DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | -28.3% | NO |
| 2026-07-10 | GMM | 3.11 | Live | Short Squeeze | -28.7% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -35.7% | NO |
| 2026-07-10 | GLOO | 0.76 | Live | Offering / Dilution | +2.7% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +3.4% | NO |
| 2026-07-10 | ELPW | 5.42 | Live | Short Squeeze | +19.2% | confirmed | HIGH | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION, DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | +10.5% | YES |
| 2026-07-10 | ELAB | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | -10.7% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -5.4% | NO |
| 2026-07-10 | EDUC | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +1.3% | NO |
| 2026-07-10 | CYAB | 0.76 | Live | Offering / Dilution | +0.4% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +1.2% | NO |
| 2026-07-10 | BYRN | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | -3.8% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.6% | NO |
| 2026-07-10 | AXTL | 2.31 | Live | Dead Cat Bounce | -5.8% | filtered_out | LOW | DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | -7.9% | NO |
| 2026-07-10 | AIRI | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.3% | NO |
| 2026-07-10 | AARD | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -2.5% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -3.3% | NO |
| 2026-07-09 | WRAP | 3.11 | Live | Short Squeeze | -1.3% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -2.1% | NO |
| 2026-07-09 | VRAX | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -16.7% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -22.6% | NO |
| 2026-07-09 | RXT | 2.31 | Live | Offering / Dilution | -0.9% | filtered_out | LOW | DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | +1.6% | NO |
| 2026-07-09 | RPGL | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -14.3% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -9.7% | NO |
| 2026-07-09 | RKTO | 3.11 | Live | Short Squeeze | -1.7% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -1.7% | NO |
| 2026-07-09 | NWTG | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +5.4% | NO |
| 2026-07-09 | LGHL | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -14.1% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -17.6% | NO |
| 2026-07-09 | JLHL | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | +46.2% | confirmed | HIGH | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | +9.9% | NO |
| 2026-07-09 | GLOO | 3.07 | Live | Offering / Dilution | +2.3% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL, FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.3% | NO |
| 2026-07-09 | ESPR | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | +0.0% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.3% | NO |
| 2026-07-09 | ELPW | 3.11 | Live | Short Squeeze | +37.3% | confirmed | HIGH | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -41.3% | NO |
| 2026-07-09 | EDUC | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | -1.3% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +1.3% | NO |
| 2026-07-09 | BYRN | 2.31 | Live | Short Squeeze | +1.3% | filtered_out | LOW | DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | +0.5% | NO |
| 2026-07-09 | AFJK | 5.42 | Live | Unknown | +6.3% | confirmed | HIGH | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION, DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | +0.4% | NO |
| 2026-07-09 | AEON | 0.76 | Live | Offering / Dilution | +0.0% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +2.2% | NO |
| 2026-07-08 | VTAK | 3.11 | Live | Offering / Dilution | -19.7% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -22.6% | NO |
| 2026-07-08 | VANI | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | +1.2% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -1.2% | NO |
| 2026-07-08 | PRME | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | +2.2% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.9% | NO |
| 2026-07-08 | OMH | 2.31 | Live | Dead Cat Bounce | -2.9% | filtered_out | LOW | DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | +2.9% | NO |
| 2026-07-08 | NVVE | 6.83 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -8.1% | filtered_out | HIGH | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION, MULTI_DAY_PARABOLIC_CONTINUATION | -6.9% | NO |
| 2026-07-08 | NB | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | +1.7% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.4% | NO |
| 2026-07-08 | IOTR | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | +0.8% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | +19.2% | YES |
| 2026-07-08 | ESPR | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | -0.3% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.3% | NO |
| 2026-07-08 | BTAI | 3.07 | Live | Unknown | +2.2% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL, FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.3% | NO |
| 2026-07-08 | BRN | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | -2.9% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.0% | NO |
| 2026-07-08 | AQB | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.9% | NO |
| 2026-07-07 | VANI | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | -1.5% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.7% | NO |
| 2026-07-07 | TVRD | 3.11 | Live | Unknown | -1.6% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | +4.2% | NO |
| 2026-07-07 | TEUP | 2.31 | Live | Dead Cat Bounce | -7.4% | filtered_out | LOW | DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | -3.1% | NO |
| 2026-07-07 | SKIN | 6.83 | Live | Short Squeeze | -6.3% | filtered_out | HIGH | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION, MULTI_DAY_PARABOLIC_CONTINUATION | -0.9% | NO |
| 2026-07-07 | RWT | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | +0.0% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.0% | NO |
| 2026-07-07 | NTIP | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +2.8% | NO |
| 2026-07-07 | NCT | 0.76 | Live | Offering / Dilution | -7.3% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -2.4% | NO |
| 2026-07-07 | JLHL | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -6.5% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -3.9% | NO |
| 2026-07-07 | CRNX | 3.11 | Live | Unknown | -0.1% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -0.0% | NO |
| 2026-07-07 | CLRO | 6.83 | Live | Unknown | -7.5% | filtered_out | HIGH | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION, MULTI_DAY_PARABOLIC_CONTINUATION | -14.2% | NO |
| 2026-07-07 | CCHH | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -13.8% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -0.9% | NO |
| 2026-07-07 | BTAI | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | +1.0% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +1.0% | NO |
| 2026-07-07 | BJDX | 3.11 | Live | Short Squeeze | +2.1% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | +2.1% | NO |
| 2026-07-07 | BIAF | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | +0.0% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -2.9% | NO |
| 2026-07-07 | AMPU | 2.31 | Live | Dead Cat Bounce | -5.2% | filtered_out | LOW | DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | -3.1% | NO |
| 2026-07-06 | YDES | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -9.4% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -0.4% | NO |
| 2026-07-06 | SEER | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -3.1% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | +0.0% | NO |
| 2026-07-06 | NOMA | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.6% | NO |
| 2026-07-06 | MVO | 5.42 | Live | Volatility Breakout | +5.8% | confirmed | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION, DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | -0.8% | NO |
| 2026-07-06 | MSS | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | -14.9% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -9.7% | NO |
| 2026-07-06 | LUCY | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -5.6% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | +0.8% | NO |
| 2026-07-06 | LHSW | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -32.1% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -37.5% | NO |
| 2026-07-06 | LGVN | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | +4.3% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.1% | NO |
| 2026-07-06 | KIDZ | 3.11 | Live | Short Squeeze | -19.4% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -21.9% | NO |
| 2026-07-06 | JLHL | 5.42 | Live | Volatility Breakout | +9.5% | confirmed | HIGH | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION, DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | +4.3% | NO |
| 2026-07-06 | IPW | 0.76 | Live | Short Squeeze | +2.6% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -1.6% | NO |
| 2026-07-06 | GLOO | 0.76 | Live | Offering / Dilution | -2.5% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +1.8% | NO |
| 2026-07-06 | FBGL | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -5.9% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | +1.3% | NO |
| 2026-07-06 | EMPD | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +1.0% | NO |
| 2026-07-06 | CLVT | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | +0.4% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.8% | NO |
| 2026-07-06 | BTAI | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | +1.8% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.9% | NO |
| 2026-07-06 | BRLS | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | — | no_pm_data | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | +0.1% | NO |
| 2026-07-02 | YDES | 2.31 | Live | Dead Cat Bounce | +2.1% | filtered_out | LOW | DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | +4.2% | NO |
| 2026-07-02 | VANI | 0.76 | Live | M&A | -3.2% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.0% | NO |
| 2026-07-02 | SURG | 6.83 | Live | Unknown | -16.5% | filtered_out | HIGH | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION, MULTI_DAY_PARABOLIC_CONTINUATION | -13.6% | NO |
| 2026-07-02 | SRFM | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | +3.8% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -2.9% | NO |
| 2026-07-02 | SONM | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | -9.3% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -5.9% | NO |
| 2026-07-02 | SNDU | 2.31 | Live | Dead Cat Bounce | +6.9% | confirmed | LOW | DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | +9.1% | NO |
| 2026-07-02 | SNDG | 2.31 | Live | Dead Cat Bounce | +10.1% | confirmed | LOW | DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | +13.9% | YES |
| 2026-07-02 | SDEV | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -5.2% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -3.7% | NO |
| 2026-07-02 | RGC | 2.31 | Live | Dead Cat Bounce | +2.5% | filtered_out | LOW | DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | -0.2% | NO |
| 2026-07-02 | MERC | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -1.4% | NO |
| 2026-07-02 | JLHL | 2.31 | Live | Dead Cat Bounce | +27.7% | confirmed | LOW | DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | +25.0% | YES |
| 2026-07-02 | IPW | 0.76 | Live | Short Squeeze | -0.5% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +1.5% | NO |
| 2026-07-02 | INUV | 0.76 | Live | Offering / Dilution | +1.9% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -1.9% | NO |
| 2026-07-02 | ICU | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | +1.6% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.4% | NO |
| 2026-07-02 | HLP | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -4.3% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -2.9% | NO |
| 2026-07-02 | EMPD | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.8% | NO |
| 2026-07-02 | CWD | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -26.0% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -24.0% | NO |
| 2026-07-02 | CRWD | 2.31 | Live | Dead Cat Bounce | -0.1% | filtered_out | LOW | DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | -2.3% | NO |
| 2026-07-02 | CREX | 0.76 | Live | Offering / Dilution | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.2% | NO |
| 2026-07-02 | CLRO | 3.11 | Live | M&A | +11.3% | confirmed | HIGH | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -0.6% | NO |
| 2026-07-02 | BRLS | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | -7.7% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -2.3% | NO |
| 2026-07-02 | AEHG | 2.31 | Live | Dead Cat Bounce | — | no_pm_data | LOW | DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | +1.4% | NO |
| 2026-07-01 | TONX | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | -0.7% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +2.7% | NO |
| 2026-07-01 | SURG | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | +51.4% | confirmed | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +40.5% | YES |
| 2026-07-01 | STKE | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | +5.0% | confirmed | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | +6.2% | NO |
| 2026-07-01 | SITC | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.2% | NO |
| 2026-07-01 | PNBK | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | +0.0% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.0% | NO |
| 2026-07-01 | ORMP | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +2.6% | NO |
| 2026-07-01 | NXB | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +5.6% | NO |
| 2026-07-01 | NVVE | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | +0.5% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -1.2% | NO |
| 2026-07-01 | MLI | 2.31 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | +0.5% | NO |
| 2026-07-01 | LHAI | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -31.8% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -35.4% | NO |
| 2026-07-01 | IZM | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | +0.2% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -1.3% | NO |
| 2026-07-01 | ICU | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -4.9% | NO |
| 2026-07-01 | IBIO | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | +2.3% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.6% | NO |
| 2026-07-01 | GSUN | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -10.6% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -8.3% | NO |
| 2026-07-01 | ESLA | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | +3.8% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -1.3% | NO |
| 2026-07-01 | EMPD | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | +3.8% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.3% | NO |
| 2026-07-01 | ELAB | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | -12.1% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -10.9% | NO |
| 2026-07-01 | DVLT | 0.76 | Live | Short Squeeze | -1.7% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +1.5% | NO |
| 2026-07-01 | CVKD | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | -6.0% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -2.5% | NO |
| 2026-07-01 | CULP | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +3.6% | NO |
| 2026-07-01 | CREX | 0.76 | Live | Offering / Dilution | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -1.0% | NO |
| 2026-07-01 | BLNE | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | +3.7% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +1.8% | NO |
| 2026-07-01 | BDTX | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | +0.0% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.5% | NO |
| 2026-06-30 | YOOV | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -24.7% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -32.3% | NO |
| 2026-06-30 | XHLD | 3.87 | Live | Offering / Dilution | -2.6% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION, FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +1.1% | NO |
| 2026-06-30 | XCUR | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | -1.4% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -2.9% | NO |
| 2026-06-30 | WZRD | 2.31 | Live | Dead Cat Bounce | — | no_pm_data | LOW | DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | +3.9% | NO |
| 2026-06-30 | UNCY | 5.42 | Live | FDA / Biotech | -4.1% | filtered_out | HIGH | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION, DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | -2.6% | NO |
| 2026-06-30 | TARA | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.5% | NO |
| 2026-06-30 | SSII | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | -0.5% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.5% | NO |
| 2026-06-30 | SOC | 5.42 | Live | Offering / Dilution | +8.8% | confirmed | HIGH | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION, DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | +26.0% | YES |
| 2026-06-30 | MBRX | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | -7.2% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -7.2% | NO |
| 2026-06-30 | LGCL | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -18.4% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -13.5% | NO |
| 2026-06-30 | JEM | 3.11 | Live | Short Squeeze | +106.2% | confirmed | HIGH | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | +116.5% | YES |
| 2026-06-30 | JBDI | 6.83 | Live | Volatility Breakout | +9.8% | confirmed | HIGH | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION, MULTI_DAY_PARABOLIC_CONTINUATION | -3.8% | NO |
| 2026-06-30 | INTZ | 3.11 | Live | Unknown | -13.8% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -2.6% | NO |
| 2026-06-30 | HTZ | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | -1.1% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -1.1% | NO |
| 2026-06-30 | GVH | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | +4.4% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | +2.7% | NO |
| 2026-06-30 | GANX | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | -5.9% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -1.5% | NO |
| 2026-06-30 | EMPD | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +1.1% | NO |
| 2026-06-30 | CTNT | 0.76 | Live | Insider Activity | -6.6% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -6.0% | NO |
| 2026-06-30 | CREX | 0.76 | Live | Offering / Dilution | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +1.9% | NO |
| 2026-06-30 | CNDT | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | -3.4% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.7% | NO |
| 2026-06-30 | CELZ | 3.11 | Live | FDA / Biotech | -11.1% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -6.2% | NO |
| 2026-06-30 | BTCT | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -9.7% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -7.7% | NO |
| 2026-06-30 | BIYA | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -21.5% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -24.2% | NO |
| 2026-06-30 | BHR | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -1.4% | NO |
| 2026-06-30 | APVO | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | -0.5% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +1.4% | NO |
| 2026-06-29 | XHLD | 0.76 | Live | Offering / Dilution | +0.0% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -1.8% | NO |
| 2026-06-29 | UPC | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -28.7% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -36.0% | NO |
| 2026-06-29 | TVRD | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -0.5% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -2.6% | NO |
| 2026-06-29 | TNMG | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -26.4% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -15.8% | NO |
| 2026-06-29 | TCRT | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +3.0% | NO |
| 2026-06-29 | RMTI | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | -0.1% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -2.6% | NO |
| 2026-06-29 | RMCF | 2.31 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | +0.0% | NO |
| 2026-06-29 | PETS | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | -4.8% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +9.3% | NO |
| 2026-06-29 | NXB | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -3.2% | NO |
| 2026-06-29 | NNBR | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -8.8% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | +0.8% | NO |
| 2026-06-29 | LRMR | 0.76 | Live | Short Squeeze | -3.1% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -2.5% | NO |
| 2026-06-29 | LGCL | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -2.8% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | +11.5% | YES |
| 2026-06-29 | JEM | 2.31 | Live | Short Squeeze | +159.3% | confirmed | LOW | DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | +357.4% | YES |
| 2026-06-29 | HTZ | 0.76 | Live | Offering / Dilution | +0.9% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +1.3% | NO |
| 2026-06-29 | GANX | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | +6.6% | confirmed | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -1.5% | NO |
| 2026-06-29 | EVMN | 3.11 | Live | Offering / Dilution | +1.7% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -1.9% | NO |
| 2026-06-29 | DGNX | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | +15.7% | confirmed | HIGH | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | +14.3% | YES |
| 2026-06-29 | DCOY | 3.11 | Live | Unknown | -27.0% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -28.5% | NO |
| 2026-06-29 | CREX | 0.76 | Live | Offering / Dilution | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -3.8% | NO |
| 2026-06-29 | CELZ | 5.42 | Live | Offering / Dilution | -1.2% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION, DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | +222.1% | YES |
| 2026-06-29 | BTOG | 2.31 | Live | Dead Cat Bounce | -2.4% | filtered_out | LOW | DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | -4.9% | NO |
| 2026-06-26 | ZIP | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.5% | NO |
| 2026-06-26 | XAIR | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +3.0% | NO |
| 2026-06-26 | WSHP | 3.11 | Live | Short Squeeze | +15.9% | confirmed | HIGH | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -6.2% | NO |
| 2026-06-26 | VSTM | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.3% | NO |
| 2026-06-26 | TVRD | 2.31 | Live | Dead Cat Bounce | +22.0% | confirmed | LOW | DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | +21.3% | YES |
| 2026-06-26 | TUSK | 0.76 | Live | Insider Activity | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.3% | NO |
| 2026-06-26 | SUIG | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | +4.4% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.9% | NO |
| 2026-06-26 | SLSN | 5.42 | Live | Volatility Breakout | — | no_pm_data | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION, DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | +2.0% | NO |
| 2026-06-26 | RYOJ | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -8.2% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -7.8% | NO |
| 2026-06-26 | RMCF | 3.07 | Live | Offering / Dilution | +0.0% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL, FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +3.7% | NO |
| 2026-06-26 | RCT | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -11.4% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -10.3% | NO |
| 2026-06-26 | QUCY | 3.11 | Live | M&A | -5.5% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -3.1% | NO |
| 2026-06-26 | QSI | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | +0.1% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.5% | NO |
| 2026-06-26 | PSIG | 2.31 | Live | Dead Cat Bounce | -6.9% | filtered_out | LOW | DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | -13.8% | NO |
| 2026-06-26 | PROP | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | +0.0% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +1.1% | NO |
| 2026-06-26 | PLX | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.4% | NO |
| 2026-06-26 | PASG | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | -3.0% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -2.1% | NO |
| 2026-06-26 | ONX | 5.42 | Live | Volatility Breakout | +4.2% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION, DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | +0.7% | NO |
| 2026-06-26 | ONG | 5.42 | Live | Volatility Breakout | +6.1% | confirmed | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION, DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | +0.9% | NO |
| 2026-06-26 | OBIO | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.7% | NO |
| 2026-06-26 | NNOX | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | +0.9% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | +2.8% | NO |
| 2026-06-26 | NFE | 0.76 | Live | Short Squeeze | +7.2% | confirmed | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +3.9% | NO |
| 2026-06-26 | MYO | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | +5.8% | confirmed | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -1.0% | NO |
| 2026-06-26 | MODD | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -0.2% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -6.7% | NO |
| 2026-06-26 | MNOV | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +1.5% | NO |
| 2026-06-26 | MIRA | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -1.0% | NO |
| 2026-06-26 | LVWR | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -15.2% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -8.0% | NO |
| 2026-06-26 | LUCD | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | -3.7% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -1.9% | NO |
| 2026-06-26 | LODE | 0.76 | Live | Insider Activity | +0.0% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -1.6% | NO |
| 2026-06-26 | LICN | 5.42 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -5.6% | filtered_out | HIGH | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION, DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | -2.9% | NO |
| 2026-06-26 | LGCL | 5.42 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -8.1% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION, DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | +66.2% | YES |
Pipeline-Stage Precision Waterfall
How precision compounds through pipeline stages. Read top-down — each stage adds a filter to the previous one. Cells show {point}% [Wilson 95% CI] (n=N, k hit) with the same green/yellow/red rule used elsewhere. Live-only; backtest predictions excluded.
| Stage | Filter | 30d | 60d | All-Live |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 0 | All Pass-1 promoted candidates | 8.0%
[5.9, 10.8]
n=485 (39 hit)
|
8.0%
[6.6, 9.7]
n=1205 (97 hit)
|
5.2%
[4.4, 6.1]
n=2452 (127 hit)
|
| Stage 1 | + composite score ≥ 3.0 | 11.2%
[7.5, 16.3]
n=197 (22 hit)
|
12.5%
[10.0, 15.7]
n=510 (64 hit)
|
8.4%
[6.8, 10.3]
n=945 (79 hit)
|
| Stage 2 | + PM directional filter ≥ 5% | 46.2%
[28.8, 64.5]
n=26 (12 hit)
|
61.4%
[49.7, 72.0]
n=70 (43 hit)
|
58.1%
[47.9, 67.6]
n=93 (54 hit)
|
| Stage 3 | + PM directional filter ≥ 10% | 68.8%
[44.4, 85.8]
n=16 (11 hit)
|
79.2%
[65.7, 88.3]
n=48 (38 hit)
|
74.2%
[62.1, 83.4]
n=62 (46 hit)
|
Stage 0 caveat: gap_predictions only stores rows where at least one pattern
matched during Pass-2 enrichment. Pass-1-promoted candidates with zero pattern matches are dropped before
storage and aren't recoverable retrospectively, so Stage 0 here is a slight subset of the strict "all
Pass-1 promoted" set. Stages 2 / 3: the PM directional filter requires PM data; rows with
prediction_status='no_pm_data' drop out of these stages entirely.
Pattern Health Monitor
| Pattern | Hist. Lift | Total Fires | Live Prec | Backtest Prec | Combined Prec | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MULTI_DAY_PARABOLIC_CONTINUATION | 41.1x | 20 (20L / 0B) | 65.0%
[43.3, 81.9]
n=20 (13 hit)
|
n/a | 65.0%
[43.3, 81.9]
n=20 (13 hit)
|
On Track |
| VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | 22.4x | 85 (85L / 0B) | 56.5%
[45.9, 66.5]
n=85 (48 hit)
|
n/a | 56.5%
[45.9, 66.5]
n=85 (48 hit)
|
On Track |
| DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | 10.0x | 55 (55L / 0B) | 47.3%
[34.7, 60.2]
n=55 (26 hit)
|
n/a | 47.3%
[34.7, 60.2]
n=55 (26 hit)
|
On Track |
| FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | 2.1x | 68 (68L / 0B) | 33.8%
[23.7, 45.7]
n=68 (23 hit)
|
n/a | 33.8%
[23.7, 45.7]
n=68 (23 hit)
|
Below Expected |
Drift detection uses confirmed predictions only. Patterns need ≥ 10 confirmed fires before assessment. With only backtest data, most patterns may show insufficient data.
Composite Score Calibration
| Score Threshold | Long-run (all live) | Recent (30d) |
|---|---|---|
| >=6.0 (HIGH) | 63.6%
[35.4, 84.8]
n=11 (7 hit)
|
25.0%
[4.6, 69.9]
n=4 (1 hit)
|
| >=3.0 (MED+) | 58.1%
[47.9, 67.6]
n=93 (54 hit)
|
46.2%
[28.8, 64.5]
n=26 (12 hit)
|
| >=0.0 (any) | 45.7%
[38.7, 52.9]
n=186 (85 hit)
|
51.0%
[37.5, 64.4]
n=49 (25 hit)
|
Self-updating drift detector. Long-run = all-live confirmed precision per score tier (the stable baseline); Recent = the last 30 days. If Recent tracks Long-run, the score is well-calibrated; a persistent gap flags drift. Live-only, confirmed predictions, dirty periods excluded. Replaces the frozen Phase 3 holdout figures, which were pre-directional-filter and ran well above live.
Pattern-Free Baseline (Null Hypothesis)
Would Pass-1 + PM filter alone produce similar precision to the full system? If row 2 ≈ row 1, the composite score floor isn't doing real work above the universe filter. If row 4 ≈ row 1, the PM threshold + score combination isn't either. Single all-live window; live-only (2452 resolved predictions in scope after dirty-period exclusion).
| Filter | Precision | Δ vs baseline |
|---|---|---|
| Pass-1 + PM ≥ 5% (no patterns) | 45.7%
[38.7, 52.9]
n=186 (85 hit)
|
— |
| + composite score ≥ 3.0 | 58.1%
[47.9, 67.6]
n=93 (54 hit)
|
+12.4 pp |
| + composite score ≥ 6.0 | 63.6%
[35.4, 84.8]
n=11 (7 hit)
|
+17.9 pp |
| Pass-1 + PM ≥ 10% + composite score ≥ 6.0 | 71.4%
[35.9, 91.8]
n=7 (5 hit)
|
+25.7 pp |
Caveat: the "no patterns" baseline isn't strictly pattern-free.
gap_predictions only stores rows where ≥1 pattern matched during Pass-2 enrichment
(live_predictor.py:753), so Pass-1-promoted-but-zero-patterns days are dropped before
storage and unrecoverable retrospectively. Read row 1 as "Pass-1 + ≥1 pattern fired + PM ≥ 5%",
a near-null rather than a strict null. A genuine pattern-free comparison would require re-running
the live pipeline with patterns disabled — out of scope for the instrumentation window.
Same boundary as Item 1's Stage 0.