Prediction History
Accuracy tracking and score calibration
Each evening the pipeline identifies stocks likely to gap up 10%+ at the next open. A pre-market filter confirms or filters out each candidate, and actual outcomes are recorded after the open. Confirmed Precision target: ~50%. High Conviction Precision target: ~89%.
Prediction Accuracy Summary
All Predictions
653
Hits: 27 | Precision: 4.1%
Confirmed Only
41
Hits: 21 | Precision: 51.2%
High Conviction
21
Hits: 17 | Precision: 81.0%
Live Confirmed
51.2%
n=41 (21 hits)
Backtest Confirmed
0.0%
n=0 (0 hits)
Live High Conviction
81.0%
n=21 (17 hits)
Backtest High Conviction
0.0%
n=0 (0 hits)
Directional Filter Performance
Candidates
653
Confirmed
41 (6.3%)
Filtered Out
391 (59.9%)
No PM Data
221 (33.8%)
Confirmed Precision
51.2%
Filtered-Out Hit Rate
1.0%
Should be low — validates filter
TP Retention
77.8%
Confirmed hits / total hits
Precision by Catalyst Type
| Catalyst | Count | Hits | Precision % | Avg Gap % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dead Cat Bounce | 45 | 2 | 4.4% | -0.5% |
| Earnings | 66 | 0 | 0.0% | -0.1% |
| FDA / Biotech | 18 | 2 | 11.1% | +0.3% |
| Filing Activity | 69 | 1 | 1.4% | -1.5% |
| Insider Activity | 22 | 0 | 0.0% | +0.8% |
| M&A | 28 | 0 | 0.0% | -2.1% |
| Offering / Dilution | 108 | 6 | 5.6% | +2.2% |
| Parabolic Run | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | +6.7% |
| Short Squeeze | 24 | 3 | 12.5% | -3.0% |
| Unknown | 160 | 2 | 1.2% | +1.0% |
| Volatility Breakout | 106 | 9 | 8.5% | -8.3% |
Charts
Rolling Precision
Gap Distribution
Score Calibration
Prediction History
Showing 200 of 653 matching predictions
| Date | Ticker | Score | Source | Catalyst | PM Change | Status | Tier | Patterns | Actual Gap | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | CMPX | 5.42 | Live | FDA / Biotech | +11.2% | confirmed | HIGH | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION, DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | +6.4% | NO |
| 2026-04-27 | ADGM | 0.76 | Live | FDA / Biotech | -1.7% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +2.6% | NO |
| 2026-04-27 | RMBS | 5.82 | Live | Earnings | -17.1% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | EARNINGS_SURPRISE_TRINITY, CATALYST_FILING_WITHOUT_FANFARE | -17.6% | NO |
| 2026-04-27 | XOMAP | 3.32 | Live | Earnings | — | no_pm_data | MEDIUM | EARNINGS_SURPRISE_TRINITY | -0.0% | NO |
| 2026-04-27 | EDSA | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -3.1% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -6.9% | NO |
| 2026-04-27 | ONCY | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | -3.0% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +1.2% | NO |
| 2026-04-27 | XOMA | 3.32 | Live | Earnings | — | no_pm_data | MEDIUM | EARNINGS_SURPRISE_TRINITY | -0.9% | NO |
| 2026-04-27 | NEXM | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.4% | NO |
| 2026-04-27 | HCWB | 3.11 | Live | Offering / Dilution | -8.2% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -12.3% | NO |
| 2026-04-27 | BRLS | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -8.8% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -2.7% | NO |
| 2026-04-27 | OIO | 2.31 | Live | Dead Cat Bounce | +2.6% | filtered_out | LOW | DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | -2.6% | NO |
| 2026-04-27 | UBXG | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -3.8% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | +2.7% | NO |
| 2026-04-27 | NVVE | 2.31 | Live | Dead Cat Bounce | -8.6% | filtered_out | LOW | DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | -6.4% | NO |
| 2026-04-27 | HTCO | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -18.4% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -19.0% | NO |
| 2026-04-27 | GURE | 2.31 | Live | Dead Cat Bounce | -11.9% | filtered_out | LOW | DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | -4.0% | NO |
| 2026-04-27 | DPZ | 3.32 | Live | Earnings | +0.1% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | EARNINGS_SURPRISE_TRINITY | +0.9% | NO |
| 2026-04-27 | ORIS | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -6.0% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -0.9% | NO |
| 2026-04-27 | AREB | 5.42 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -24.9% | filtered_out | HIGH | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION, DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | -35.5% | NO |
| 2026-04-27 | SMX | 2.31 | Live | Dead Cat Bounce | +1.3% | filtered_out | LOW | DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | -3.2% | NO |
| 2026-04-27 | NTLA | 3.32 | Live | Earnings | +0.3% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | EARNINGS_SURPRISE_TRINITY | -1.7% | NO |
| 2026-04-27 | GLXG | 2.31 | Live | Dead Cat Bounce | +6.2% | confirmed | LOW | DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | +0.5% | NO |
| 2026-04-27 | VIVK | 5.42 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -16.0% | filtered_out | HIGH | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION, DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | -10.9% | NO |
| 2026-04-27 | SGMT | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -1.5% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | +3.3% | NO |
| 2026-04-27 | OGN | 7.06 | Live | M&A | +0.0% | filtered_out | HIGH | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION, NEWS_FUELED_VOLATILITY_BREAKOUT | +0.2% | NO |
| 2026-04-27 | YAAS | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -25.9% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -28.9% | NO |
| 2026-04-27 | USEG | 0.76 | Live | Offering / Dilution | -2.8% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.0% | NO |
| 2026-04-27 | PMI | 0.76 | Live | Offering / Dilution | +2.9% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +1.7% | NO |
| 2026-04-27 | XOMAO | 3.32 | Live | Earnings | — | no_pm_data | MEDIUM | EARNINGS_SURPRISE_TRINITY | -0.2% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | PATK | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.9% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | APOG | 6.59 | Live | Earnings | — | no_pm_data | HIGH | EARNINGS_SURPRISE_TRINITY, CATALYST_FILING_WITHOUT_FANFARE | -0.5% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | OCFC | 0.76 | Live | Offering / Dilution | -1.0% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.6% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | NBTB | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.1% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | REXR | 0.76 | Live | Offering / Dilution | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.3% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | CWBC | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.5% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | BCML | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.3% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | WTRG | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.2% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | EBC | 0.76 | Live | Offering / Dilution | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.6% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | QS | 5.82 | Live | Earnings | +0.0% | filtered_out | HIGH | EARNINGS_SURPRISE_TRINITY, CATALYST_FILING_WITHOUT_FANFARE | -1.7% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | LYTS | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.5% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | MRBK | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.3% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | RMBS | 0.76 | Live | Offering / Dilution | +1.0% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -1.2% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | CMCSA | 3.32 | Live | Earnings | -0.1% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | EARNINGS_SURPRISE_TRINITY | -0.4% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | HCA | 5.82 | Live | Earnings | +2.7% | filtered_out | HIGH | EARNINGS_SURPRISE_TRINITY, CATALYST_FILING_WITHOUT_FANFARE | +1.4% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | CAST | 3.11 | Live | Earnings | -3.8% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | +0.9% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | DLR | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.5% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | SNOA | 5.42 | Live | Offering / Dilution | +0.0% | filtered_out | HIGH | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION, DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | +0.0% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | SSB | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | +0.0% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.1% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | BYD | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.1% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | TCBI | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.1% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | SES | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | -0.9% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -3.4% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | FIX | 2.5 | Live | Earnings | -0.1% | filtered_out | LOW | CATALYST_FILING_WITHOUT_FANFARE | +1.1% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | WU | 0.76 | Live | Filing Activity | +0.9% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.3% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | VC | 0.76 | Live | Offering / Dilution | +1.2% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +1.4% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | ATOM | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | +10.3% | confirmed | HIGH | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -1.2% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | DSS | 0.76 | Live | Offering / Dilution | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +6.8% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | TIVC | 3.87 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -3.0% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION, FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -2.3% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | AUUD | 2.31 | Live | Dead Cat Bounce | -4.9% | filtered_out | LOW | DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | -4.9% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | HLX | 3.26 | Live | M&A | +0.8% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | CATALYST_FILING_WITHOUT_FANFARE, FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.4% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | TCBX | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.5% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | CSL | 0.76 | Live | Filing Activity | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.3% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | FRST | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.1% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | OSRH | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | +2.4% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +5.3% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | FMAO | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.0% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | SLSN | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | -6.6% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.0% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | SLM | 0.76 | Live | Earnings | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.3% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | RLI | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | +0.5% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.5% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | SPRU | 0.76 | Live | Insider Activity | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.0% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | IQST | 3.11 | Live | Earnings | +0.6% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -1.2% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | NRXS | 0.76 | Live | Offering / Dilution | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.4% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | HFWA | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.0% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | KN | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.7% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | SXT | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.4% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | CHE | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.0% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | ELPW | 3.72 | Live | Parabolic Run | +21.0% | confirmed | HIGH | MULTI_DAY_PARABOLIC_CONTINUATION | +23.8% | YES |
| 2026-04-24 | TBRG | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.0% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | ALT | 3.26 | Live | Offering / Dilution | +1.4% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | CATALYST_FILING_WITHOUT_FANFARE, FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.4% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | COUR | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | +0.8% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.8% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | MXL | 3.72 | Live | Earnings | +4.3% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | MULTI_DAY_PARABOLIC_CONTINUATION | +1.0% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | FPH | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.0% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | WKC | 0.76 | Live | Filing Activity | -0.9% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.1% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | THRM | 0.76 | Live | Offering / Dilution | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.7% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | CVLG | 0.76 | Live | Insider Activity | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.5% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | KFRC | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.5% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | CYH | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | -0.7% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.0% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | FWONK | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.4% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | APPF | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +1.0% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | CHDN | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.4% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | HTLD | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.5% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | UVE | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.9% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | FLG | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -1.5% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | NBBK | 0.76 | Live | Insider Activity | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.8% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | FGBI | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.8% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | HELE | 0.76 | Live | Filing Activity | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +1.6% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | GNTX | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.4% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | GRC | 0.76 | Live | Filing Activity | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.5% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | SMX | 2.31 | Live | Dead Cat Bounce | +13.0% | confirmed | LOW | DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | +1.0% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | MSBI | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +1.4% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | GMEX | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -13.8% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -15.9% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | ORRF | 0.76 | Live | Offering / Dilution | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.2% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | ITOC | 7.06 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -9.2% | filtered_out | HIGH | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION, NEWS_FUELED_VOLATILITY_BREAKOUT | +3.2% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | CUBI | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +1.3% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | PRLD | 0.76 | Live | Insider Activity | -2.1% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +4.7% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | LANDP | 0.76 | Live | Offering / Dilution | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.4% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | RHI | 0.76 | Live | Short Squeeze | +0.3% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.7% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | GDEN | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.1% | NO |
| 2026-04-24 | TMUSL | 0.76 | Live | Earnings | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.2% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | HLX | 3.26 | Live | M&A | — | no_pm_data | MEDIUM | CATALYST_FILING_WITHOUT_FANFARE, FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.0% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | CACI | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +1.1% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | RJF | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.1% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | GSHD | 0.76 | Live | Filing Activity | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.5% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | NOW | 3.32 | Live | Earnings | +1.6% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | EARNINGS_SURPRISE_TRINITY | +1.2% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | CSX | 3.26 | Live | Earnings | +0.0% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | CATALYST_FILING_WITHOUT_FANFARE, FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.7% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | LUCD | 0.76 | Live | Filing Activity | +8.3% | confirmed | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +3.7% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | TXNU | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -1.8% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | +3.9% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | EUDA | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -17.1% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -17.2% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | TXN | 2.5 | Live | Earnings | -0.3% | filtered_out | LOW | CATALYST_FILING_WITHOUT_FANFARE | +2.0% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | HELE | 0.76 | Live | Filing Activity | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.0% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | VOYA | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | +0.0% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.1% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | CBRE | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.4% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | TMO | 6.59 | Live | Earnings | +0.4% | filtered_out | HIGH | EARNINGS_SURPRISE_TRINITY, CATALYST_FILING_WITHOUT_FANFARE | +0.5% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | LMT | 3.32 | Live | Earnings | +0.3% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | EARNINGS_SURPRISE_TRINITY | -0.9% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | FCX | 6.59 | Live | Earnings | +0.7% | filtered_out | HIGH | EARNINGS_SURPRISE_TRINITY, CATALYST_FILING_WITHOUT_FANFARE | +1.0% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | CCS | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -1.0% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | FTFT | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -3.5% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | +0.7% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | NPT | 2.31 | Live | Dead Cat Bounce | -3.7% | filtered_out | LOW | DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | -3.3% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | ORI | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +1.3% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | AMAL | 0.76 | Live | Offering / Dilution | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.4% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | RS | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.5% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | ACU | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.5% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | ACON | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +2.5% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | KALU | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +1.2% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | TEL | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | +0.2% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +1.0% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | TFIN | 0.76 | Live | Filing Activity | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.3% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | SKLZ | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -30.0% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -30.9% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | SON | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.8% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | CASH | 0.76 | Live | Filing Activity | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.4% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | VLY | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.3% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | FBNC | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.4% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | KN | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.1% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | EPRT | 0.76 | Live | Offering / Dilution | +0.0% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.1% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | CHDN | 3.26 | Live | M&A | — | no_pm_data | MEDIUM | CATALYST_FILING_WITHOUT_FANFARE, FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +1.7% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | SNOA | 0.76 | Live | Offering / Dilution | -20.0% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -43.3% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | SGHT | 0.76 | Live | Offering / Dilution | -7.4% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.5% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | TLRY | 0.76 | Live | Offering / Dilution | -0.1% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -1.1% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | CELU | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.9% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | CPIX | 0.76 | Live | Offering / Dilution | -4.6% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.5% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | HCSG | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.2% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | QS | 3.32 | Live | Earnings | +2.8% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | EARNINGS_SURPRISE_TRINITY | +1.2% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | MAS | 0.76 | Live | Earnings | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.2% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | NBBK | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -1.5% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | LYTS | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -1.3% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | UNP | 5.82 | Live | Earnings | — | no_pm_data | HIGH | EARNINGS_SURPRISE_TRINITY, CATALYST_FILING_WITHOUT_FANFARE | +0.6% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | BANR | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.7% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | AMST | 3.11 | Live | Offering / Dilution | -12.5% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -16.0% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | IBM | 3.32 | Live | Earnings | +0.3% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | EARNINGS_SURPRISE_TRINITY | +0.4% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | URI | 3.26 | Live | Earnings | -0.7% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | CATALYST_FILING_WITHOUT_FANFARE, FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +1.1% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | INBX | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +1.1% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | PKG | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -1.4% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | MEDP | 4.08 | Live | Earnings | — | no_pm_data | MEDIUM | EARNINGS_SURPRISE_TRINITY, FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.9% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | GRCE | 2.31 | Live | Dead Cat Bounce | -3.2% | filtered_out | LOW | DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | -5.5% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | TRT | 6.83 | Live | Volatility Breakout | +3.0% | filtered_out | HIGH | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION, MULTI_DAY_PARABOLIC_CONTINUATION | -13.9% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | HON | 5.82 | Live | Earnings | — | no_pm_data | MEDIUM | EARNINGS_SURPRISE_TRINITY, CATALYST_FILING_WITHOUT_FANFARE | -0.7% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | FGBI | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.2% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | SHFS | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | -2.0% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +2.3% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | MBLY | 0.76 | Live | Filing Activity | +2.8% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +1.8% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | DOV | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.3% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | CRVS | 0.76 | Live | FDA / Biotech | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.6% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | HXL | 0.76 | Live | Offering / Dilution | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -1.1% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | LUV | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | +0.1% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.7% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | CBAN | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.1% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | R | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +1.1% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | NCEL | 3.72 | Live | Parabolic Run | -3.3% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | MULTI_DAY_PARABOLIC_CONTINUATION | +1.8% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | FLWS | 0.76 | Live | Insider Activity | -1.6% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.3% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | TCBX | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.9% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | INV | 0.76 | Live | Insider Activity | +4.3% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.9% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | CCIX | 0.76 | Live | Offering / Dilution | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.1% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | SIGI | 0.76 | Live | Filing Activity | +0.1% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -1.2% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | IMUX | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | +2.0% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -2.0% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | DHR | 0.76 | Live | Offering / Dilution | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.0% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | MBRX | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.0% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | PENN | 0.76 | Live | Filing Activity | -1.2% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.2% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | AZZ | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.1% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | LVS | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | -0.5% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.6% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | PHGE | 2.31 | Live | Dead Cat Bounce | +2.5% | filtered_out | LOW | DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | +4.2% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | PAPL | 7.06 | Live | FDA / Biotech | -6.6% | filtered_out | HIGH | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION, NEWS_FUELED_VOLATILITY_BREAKOUT | +4.5% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | NEE | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | +0.3% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +1.0% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | KREF | 0.76 | Live | Offering / Dilution | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -2.3% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | THRM | 0.76 | Live | Offering / Dilution | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +1.1% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | AUUD | 3.11 | Live | Volatility Breakout | -32.2% | filtered_out | MEDIUM | VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | -60.7% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | VC | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +1.1% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | PEGA | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | +0.9% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.6% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | OSBC | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.3% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | MOH | 0.76 | Live | Earnings | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.2% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | MTN | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.9% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | NEU | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.1% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | STRA | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +1.5% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | SEIC | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.0% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | WEX | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | -0.2% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | SPWR | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | +1.0% | filtered_out | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +2.0% | NO |
| 2026-04-23 | CYH | 0.76 | Live | Unknown | — | no_pm_data | LOW | FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | +0.4% | NO |
Pattern Health Monitor
| Pattern | Hist. Lift | Total Fires | Live Prec | Backtest Prec | Combined Prec | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEWS_FUELED_VOLATILITY_BREAKOUT | 51.8x | 0 (0L / 0B) | — | — | — | Needs Data |
| MULTI_DAY_PARABOLIC_CONTINUATION | 41.1x | 3 (3L / 0B) | 66.7% (n=3) | — | 66.7% | Needs Data |
| EARNINGS_SURPRISE_TRINITY | 27.7x | 1 (1L / 0B) | 100.0% (n=1) | — | 100.0% | Needs Data |
| VOLATILITY_EXPLOSION | 22.4x | 15 (15L / 0B) | 53.3% (n=15) | — | 53.3% | On Track |
| LIQUIDITY_VACUUM_EXTREME_GAP | 15.8x | 0 (0L / 0B) | — | — | — | Needs Data |
| CATALYST_FILING_WITHOUT_FANFARE | 12.2x | 2 (2L / 0B) | 100.0% (n=2) | — | 100.0% | Needs Data |
| DEAD_CAT_BOUNCE_REVERSAL | 10.0x | 8 (8L / 0B) | 25.0% (n=8) | — | 25.0% | Needs Data |
| FILING_BOMB_DELAYED_PROCESSING | 2.1x | 19 (19L / 0B) | 57.9% (n=19) | — | 57.9% | On Track |
Drift detection uses confirmed predictions only. Patterns need ≥ 10 confirmed fires before assessment. With only backtest data, most patterns may show insufficient data.
Composite Score Calibration
| Score Threshold | Expected (Holdout) | Actual (Confirmed) | Predictions |
|---|---|---|---|
| >=6.0 (HIGH) | 88.3%* | 100.0% | 2 |
| >=3.0 (MED+) | 84.0%* | 60.0% | 20 |
| >=0.0 (any) | 43.4%* | 51.2% | 41 |
*Expected values from Phase 3 holdout validation (pre-directional-filter). Not directly comparable to post-filter precision. Post-filter expected: 50.9% (confirmed) / 89.2% (high-conviction).